Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank all those involved in the development and production of the Youth in Transition Survey at Statistics Canada (STC) and Human Resources and Social Development Canada (HRSDC).

The assistance of many people was invaluable to the production of this research paper. Our thanks go to those in the Centre for Education Statistics, especially Lorraine Johnson who produced all the tables used in the analysis and Special Surveys Division, Statistics Canada, and in the policy research group of the Learning Policy Directorate of Human Resources and Social Development Canada for their contributions, feedback and suggestions.

Note of appreciation

Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information could not be produced without their continued cooperation and goodwill.

Acronyms

1. Introduction

The benefits of pursuing postsecondary education have been widely documented. Benefits are not limited to higher wages only, but extend to wider issues, such as health, employment stability and labour flexibility. At the socio economic level, a qualified work force is linked to higher productivity, innovation, civic engagement and economic growth. More importantly, however, the future of the Canadian economy is dependant on a continuous inflow of qualified workers to compete in the global/knowledge economy.

Understanding the process for obtaining postsecondary education and the factors affecting it is vital for ensuring that the needs for graduates in the Canadian economy are met. The ability to pinpoint groups of individuals who are at risk of not obtaining a postsecondary education allows for targeted interventions to assist them in increasing their human capital. Those who do decide to pursue postsecondary education may face barriers that may affect completion, and these need to be addressed.

The analysis for this report is based on data from the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS). The survey was designed by Human Resources and Social Development Canada and Statistics Canada. YITS is a longitudinal survey, which collects information on educational and labour market pathways of a sample of young Canadians in the 18 to 20 age group in 1999. They were interviewed four times since the implementation of the survey, in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006. In this report, the data used are from the first four cycles and describe where they stood in their school to work pathway in December 2005 when they were 24 to 26 years of age.¹

Previous research on postsecondary participation of Canadian youth found that no one factor can fully account for who goes on to postsecondary education (Barr-Telford and al. 2003). There was, instead, a wide variety of characteristics which distinguish youth who undertake postsecondary education from those who do not. This report will examine demographic and family characteristics, high school engagement, academic performance, and first year postsecondary experience of those who attended postsecondary education and those who did not or dropped out.

2. Participation in post-secondary education

The proportion of youth who participated in postsecondary education increases as they get older. In December 1999, when they were 18 to 20 years old and many of them were still attending high school, 54% of youth had already attended postsondary education. Over the next six years, participation rate increased steadily to reach almost 80% in December 2005. Since access touniversity happens generally at an older age, this increase is mainly attributable to the growth in university participation rate. It almost doubled over the period, while participation rate to both college/CEGEP and other PSE institution grew by 3 percentage points.

Between December 2003 and 2005 however, when youth were reaching their mid twenties, fewer of the joined the ranks of postsecondary students indicating that the participation rate was probably levelling off.

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Starting from 1999, more women than men had attended PSE. By December 2005, 85% of them had participated compared to 74% of men. However, the gap between them did not widen as they aged: in 1999, there was already an 11 points difference in participation rate between men and women (49% and 60% respectively).

Demographic factors

Two other characteristics seemed to have an impact on PSE participation: visible minority and the type of community of which they were residents. Visible minority youth were more likely to participate in postsecondary education, particularly in university.

Overall, the proportion of youth from rural communities who attended postsecondary institutions was smaller than the proportion of those from urban communities, especially at the university level. Education costs were likely considered in light of proximity of the institution. As well, youth who chose postsecondary education were more likely to attend a college/CEGEP or other type of institution rather than a university.

Provincially, Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest participation of their youth in postsecondary education, while Alberta had the lowest. In a previous study of the same cohort (Shaienks and al., 2006) the attractiveness of the labour market and the low unemployment rate were mentioned as factors explaining the high drop out rate in high school in Alberta. These factors could potentially also explain the low postsecondary education participation rate in that province. British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec had the lowest participation rates in university programs while Quebec and Ontario had the highest participation in college/CEGEP programs.

Family factors

Family structure, parental educational attainment and parental values towards postsecondary education can all affect postsecondary participation and attainment. A higher proportion of youth who lived with both parents during high school continued their studies after high school (83%) compared to youth living in another family structure (71%).

The proportion of youth who participated in postsecondary education increased as parental education increased. Furthermore, of those participating in postsecondary education, the proportion of them attending university goes up as parental education increases, in comparison with college/CEGEP.

The value that parents place on education also appeared to influence postsecondary education participation. Participation rate of youth whose parents thought postsecondary education was important was almost two times higher (84%) than those whose parents thought it was not important (48%). Among those who attended postsecondary education, more than twice as many went to university compared to those whose parents thought postsecondary education was not important.

High school engagement and academic performance

Positive interactions in high school, both academically and socially, were related to continued participation in education at the postsecondary level. Measures of school engagement includes participation in academic life (e.g., number of hours spent on homework, schoolwork performed, impressions concerning the value of education), and social life (e.g., sense of belonging, being able to count on the support of friends, ease in making friends).

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Higher proportions of youth who reported high social and academic engagement in high school attended postsecondary education than others. More than 20% of youth who attempted a bachelor degree in university reported being very engaged in high school compared to 7% of those who did not pursue postsecondary studies. This increased to 31% for students who undertook graduate studies.

Academic and social engagement scales

Academic engagement scale: This variable was derived using the respondents' levels of agreement with the following statements: I got along well with teachers; I did as little work as possible - I just wanted to get by; I paid attention to the teacher; I was interested in what I was learning in class; I completed my homework on time; I thought that many of the things we were learning in class were useless; and, school was often a waste of time. It also included the number of times per month the respondent reported skipping class without permission.

Social engagement scale: This variable was derived using the respondents' levels of agreement with the following statements: I felt like an outsider at school or like I was left out of things at school; I was treated with as much respect as other students in my class; I had friends at school whom I could talk to about personal things; and, people at school were interested in what I had to say.

Good grades in high school had a major impact on postsecondary education, and more so for university than for college or CEGEP programs. This was not surprising as entrance requirements for postsecondary schooling are tied to high school marks. The majority (93%) of those who reported an overall high school average of more than 80 percent participated in postsecondary schooling. Conversely, among youth who had an average of 60% or less, over a third managed to pursue postsecondary education, mainly in college/CEGEP or other non-university postsecondary institution (Table B6 in appendix).

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Almost 85% of youth who undertook graduate studies reported an overall average of 80 percent or more in high school. That proportion was around 25% for students who attended CEGEP, college and other post secondary institution. On the other hand, amongst youth who did not pursue postsecondary schooling, only 14% had a high school average of 80 percent or more.

Postsecondary experiences

The transition from high school to postsecondary education is not an easy one. Positive attitude and sense of belonging during first year of postsecondary education is critical in the decision to continue or to drop out. The first PSE experience was positive for the majority of youth who attended college or university.

Postsecondary programs in CEGEP, college and other postsecondary institution are generally more technical and labour market oriented. Not surprisingly, many youth attending those programs reported that the first year gave them skills to help them in the job market and to better develop their future plans. They also reported gaining some insights about the type of work/career they would like to have.

University students were less concerned about labour market skills in their first year. Among them, graduate students were the most likely to report that in their first year they felt that they had chosen the right program, they were not thinking of dropping out and they did not miss deadlines. They were also more likely to say that their grade average in first year of their program was fairly good and that they spent many hours per week studying.

3. Dropping out of postsecondary education

Demographic characteristics

Ideally, all those capable of pursuing postsecondary education should be able to do so. However, it is also as essential to ensure that those who do enter complete it. Among the 963,000 individuals who were 18 to 20 years of age in December 1999 and participated in postsecondary education by December 2005, roughly 143,600 dropped out. This represented an overall postsecondary education dropout rate of 15%.

Definitions of Postsecondary Education (PSE) Status

Participated in Postsecondary Education encompasses all of the following groups:

A Postsecondary Education Graduate is someone who graduated from a postsecondary institution and includes both graduate continuers and graduate non-continuers;

A Postsecondary Education Graduate Continuer is someone who has already graduated from a postsecondary institution and is still pursuing education at a postsecondary institution.

A Postsecondary Education Graduate Non-Continuer is someone who has graduated from a postsecondary institution and is not pursuing education in a postsecondary institution.

A Postsecondary Education Continuer is someone who is attending a Postsecondary Education institution but has not yet graduated.

A Postsecondary Education Dropout is someone who has attended postsecondary education but is no longer pursuing it and has never graduated from a Postsecondary Educationinstitution.

The rate of completion of postsecondary education was the highest in Prince Edward Island (76%) and lowest in Saskatchewan and British Columbia (both at 55%). Conversely, the dropout rates were the lowest in Prince Edward Island (9%) and highest in Quebec (17%), Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia (all at 16%). While Prince Edward Island had the highest graduation rate and the lowest dropout rate, it had the lowest rate of students pursuing further postsecondary education (8% compared to 20% for Quebec —the province with the highest proportion)².

Fewer youth of visible minorities had graduated from postsecondary education by December 2005 compared to others (52% and 61% respectively), (Table 4). This is explained by the fact that more of them chose university level education which takes longer to complete. Members of visible minority as well as non members dropped from postsecondary education in similar proportion.

Although a similar proportion of both rural and urban students have graduated from postsecondary education by December 2005, rural students were less likely to have gone into further education (11% compared to 17% for urban students) and more likely to have dropped out (20% compared to 14% for urban students).

Graduation rates also varied depending on the age of the respondent in December of 2005 with 66% of those at age 26 having graduated compared to 53% at age 24. Noticeably, dropout rates remained stable (at 15%) for respondents at different ages, suggesting that dropping out occurred before 24 years of age.

The previous section has shown that women were more likely to enter postsecondary education, but they were also more likely to have completed it in the 6-year time frame covered by the survey. By December 2005, 54% graduates were women. In addition, among those who have graduated and pursued further education, 57% were represented by females. Not surprisingly, since women represented the majority of those with completed postsecondary education, men were the majority among continuers and dropouts (58% and 54% respectively) (Table C1).

A vast majority of postsecondary education graduates (87%) and graduate continuers (95%) reported having no children as of December 2005. Among dropouts, a lesser proportion (76%) had no children. Among dropouts, 90% had no children in December 2003. This indicates that the arrival of children might be a factor behind dropping out.

Student loans were a popular method of financing postsecondary education for students. Nearly six-out-of-ten of those with completed postsecondary education or those studying reported student loans. Only about half of dropouts had student loans.

Over half of those who were working and in postsecondary education were working full-time. Among graduates no longer in education, 89% were working full-time. A similar proportion of dropouts also reported working full-time (87%).

Family characteristics

Students come from a variety of family backgrounds in terms of family structure, parental education and parental aspirations for them. The type of a family structure they have grown up is considered an important determinant of their educational outcomes. A larger proportion of students who were living with both parents during high school have completed postsecondary education by December 2005 compared to those from other-family types (79% and 67% respectively when taking into account the graduates continuers and the graduates). Also, a smaller proportion of them left postsecondary education before completion (13% compared to 20% of student from other-family types) (Table 6).

Educational attainment of parents, which is often used as a proxy for estimating the family's socio-economic status, has been well documented determinant in children's schooling behavior. As discussed in the previous section, children of parents with higher educational attainment were more likely to pursue postsecondary education. However, graduation rates and drop out rates did not differ significantly between students whose parents held various educational attainments.

Parental opinion about importance of postsecondary education mattered for entrance into postsecondary education and for graduation rates (77% and 69% when graduates continuers and graduates are considered together). On the other hand, students whose parents perceived postsecondary education to be important were less likely to have dropped out (14% compared to 21% for students whose parents did not perceive postsecondary education as important).

High school engagement and academic performance

The importance of positive high school engagement on the decision to pursue postsecondary education has already been illustrated in the previous section. All three measures of high school engagement (general, academic and social) had a positive association with graduation.

A higher proportion of graduates pursuing further education reported very high engagement while in high school (24%) as compared to the other three groups (Table 7). Surprisingly, the highest proportion of those not very engaged was found among continuers. The distributions of engagement for continuers and dropouts were very similar.

Learning strategies develop early, often before postsecondary education. When asked about how much time they spent on homework while in high school, only half of postsecondary education dropouts reported to have spent more than three hours per week on homework, compared to 72% of continuing graduates.

Self reported marks in high school also showed a predicted pattern. Among graduates continuing their education, 61% reported their average high school marks in the 80 to 100 percent range. This compared to only 27% of dropouts. However, this still represented a significant proportion of capable students dropping out of postsecondary education. About 20% of both continuers and dropouts had average marks of 60 to 69 percent in high school.

Postsecondary education experience

It has been noted earlier in this section that dropping out of postsecondary occurs early in the process. Therefore, it is important to look at first year postsecondary experience to identify some of the factors contributing to either graduation or dropping out.

In their first year postsecondary education experience, leavers were already struggling in terms of meeting deadlines, academic performance and study behavior (Table 8). Compared to graduates and graduate continuers more dropouts felt they had not found the right program. On average they spent less time studying which was also reflected in their overall grade average. Consequently, more of them were thinking about leaving postsecondary education in their first year.

Number of programs

Most postsecondary education graduates and those pursuing further education have attempted multiple programs. On the other hand, 64% of dropouts attended only one program (Chart 4), a much higher proportion than for other postsecondary education participants. This suggests that dropping out occurs early in the postsecondary education process. As shown before, a high proportion of dropouts reported lack of program fit during their first year of post-secondary education. For a third of them changing programs might be a way of looking for a better program fit as opposed to dropping out.

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Reasons for dropping out of postsecondary education

In order to further understand the reasons for dropping out of postsecondary education, two groups of dropouts were analyzed separately: those who borrowed to finance their studies and those that did not.

Among those who did borrow money to finance their postsecondary education, the most often reported reasons for leaving their studies prematurely (Table 9) were the fact that they did not like their program, or not having enough money (both at 18%), and the desire to work (17%).

The most frequently reported reasons for leaving postsecondary education among those who did not borrow money were: not liking the program (29%), wanting to work (15%) and lack of money (13%). Reporting lack of money among those who did not borrow could have been a case of either debt aversion or inability to access student loans.

4. Summary

As they get older, a higher proportion of youth followed by YITS through their transitions attend postsecondary education. At their first interview in December 1999 when they were 18 to 20 years-old, 54% of them had attempted a program in a postsecondary institution. Six years later in December 2005, this participation rate was reaching almost 80%. There were however, indications that participation was levelling of as they got to be 24 to 26 years of age.

Among those who attended postsecondary education, 75% had graduated when interviewed in December 2005, of which 16% were pursuing further studies. Some 9% had not graduated but were still in postsecondary education and 15% had dropped out.

More women than men had participated in postsecondary education and their participation rate was higher for both university and college. A higher proportion of them had completed between 24 and 26 years of age and a smaller proportion had dropped out.

Visible minority youth were more likely to participate to postsecondary education, especially in university. There were no differences however, in terms of their likelihood of dropping out.

Whether the student was from a rural or urban community was also a determinant factor in postsecondary participation. This was especially true for university level education, which suggested that proximity of a college more than a university influence their decision. A higher proportion of rural students dropped out compared to urban students. Rural students were also less likely to have gone into further education after completing a first diploma.

The family structure, the parental educational attainment and the parental values towards postsecondary education were all related to postsecondary participation. The proportion of youth who participated in postsecondary increased as parental education increased. The dropout rates were lower for those whose parents think that pursuing education was important.

Youth who were engaged in high school were more likely to attend postsecondary education. A much higher proportion of postsecondary education dropouts reported lower levels on high school engagement scales.

Good marks in high school help youth participate in postsecondary education. Almost 85% of youth who undertook graduate studies reported an overall average of 80 percent or more in high school. Among youth who reported a grade average of 60 percent or less, over a third attended postsecondary education. In December 2005, over three quarters of them had graduated or were still pursuing a program. On the other hand, a significant proportion of youth with good high school marks dropped out of postsecondary education.

The first year experience was positive for the majority of youth who attended college or university. However, in the first year, dropouts were already struggling in terms of meeting deadlines, academic performance and studying patterns. Compared to graduates and graduates continuers, more drop outs felt they had not found the right program. On average, they spent less time studying which was also reflected in their overall grade average. Consequently, more of them were thinking about leaving PSE in their first year.

The uptake of multiple programs while in postsecondary education was common. However, despite the fact that dropouts were more likely to have reported problems with program fit, a small proportion of them attempted multiple programs before dropping out.

Appendix A

What is the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS)?

The Youth in Transition Survey is a Canadian longitudinal survey designed to examine the patterns of, and influences on, major transitions in young people's lives, particularly with respect to education, training and work.

Following a major consultation process with key stakeholders across Canada, ten broad objectives were developed for YITS. They are as follows:

In order to address these objectives in a timely fashion, it was decided to collect data from two age groups of youth in the first cycle of the survey in 2000. One began its participation at age 15 and the other at ages 18 to 20. Both cohorts were asked to provide a range of information on their education and employment experiences as well as information on their personal characteristics including, for example, their educational aspirations. The younger group also participated in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), an internationally recognized test to evaluate the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds in reading, mathematics, and science. Furthermore, an interview was conducted with their parents and a questionnaire was administered to their school principals.

In total, almost 30,000 youth aged 15, and more than 22,000 youth aged 18 to 20 from the ten provinces participated in the first cycle of YITS in 2000. Analysis for both cohorts was presented in different publications available to download for free through the Internet at www.statcan.gc.ca.

Follow-up interviews with the YITS participants took place in 2002, 2004 and 2006. At the time of their last interview, the two cohorts were aged 21 and 24 to 26 respectively.

YITS Methodology

Target Population

YITS has two target populations: a cohort of individuals who were 18 to 20 years old on December 31, 1999 and a cohort of students who were 15 years-old on December 31, 1999. This section deals more specifically with the older cohort, which constitute the subject of this report.

Sample Design

The target population for the 18 to 20 year-old cohort comprises residents of the ten provinces of Canada who were born between 1979 and 1981. These individuals turned 18 to 20 during 1999, the reference year for cycle 1.

The design implemented for the 18 to 20 year-old cohort is based on certain groups of households that were in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) between January 1997 and December 1999. Individuals who were full-time members of the armed forces and persons living on Indian reserves or in northern and remote areas are excluded from LFS and were therefore also excluded from this cohort. From these LFS households, a sample of individuals, born between 1979 and 1981 or those estimated to be between 18 to 20 years of age during 1999, was selected.

The sample consisted of 29,16418- to 20-year-olds in cycle 1. In total, 23,594 (80.9%) individuals responded in cycle 1. Respondents who refused to share their data were taken out of the sample for cycle 2, which reduced it to 22,378. In the following cycles the response rates were 83.9% in cycle 2, 78.9% in cycle 3 and 83.8% in cycle 4. The sample went from 18,779 in cycle 3 to 14,753 in cycle 4. For cycle 5, 12,360 young adults will constitute the YITS sample.

Data Collection

While separate data collection strategies were employed for each of the cohorts in cycle 1, the same data collection strategy was used for both cohorts in cycle 2. Data collection usually occurs between mid-January and mid-June using computer assisted telephone interviewing.

The following table shows the response rates by province and cycle.

Appendix B

Appendix C

References

Barr-Telford, Lynn, Cartwright, Fernando, Prasil, Sandrine and Shimmons, Kristina. Access, persistence and financing: First results from the Postsecondary Education Participation Survey (PEPS). Statistics Canada, September 2003.

Mylène Lambert, Zeman, Klarka, Allen, Mary and Bussière, Patrick, Who Pursues Postsecondary Education, Who Leaves and Why? Results from the Youth in Transition Survey. Statistics Canada and Human Resources and Social Development Canada, Ottawa, November 2004.

Shaienks, Danielle, Eisl-Culkin, Judy and Bussière, Patrick , Follow-up on Education and Labour Market Pathwaus of Young Canadians Aged 18 to 20 — Results from YITS Cycle 3. Statistics Canada and Human Resources and Social Development Canada, Ottawa, July 2006.

Endnotes

Culture, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics

Research Papers

Cumulative index

Statistics Canada's Division of Culture, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics develops surveys, provides statistics and conducts research and analysis relevant to current issues in its three areas of responsibility.

The Culture Statistics Program creates and disseminates timely and comprehensive information on the culture sector in Canada. The program manages a dozen regular census surveys and databanks to produce data that support policy decision and program management requirements. Issues include the economic impact of culture, the consumption of culture goods and services, government, personal and corporate spending on culture, the culture labour market, and international trade of culture goods and services. Analysis is also published in Focus on Culture (87-004-XIE, free, http://www.statcan.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=87-004-X).

The Tourism Statistics Program provides information on domestic and international tourism. The program covers the Canadian Travel Survey and the International Travel Survey. Together, these surveys shed light on the volume and characteristics of trips and travellers to, from and within Canada.

The Centre for Education Statistics develops and delivers a comprehensive program of pan-Canadian education statistics and analysis in order to support policy decisions and program management, and to ensure that accurate and relevant information concerning education is available to the Canadian public and to other educational stakeholders. The Centre conducts fifteen institutional and over ten household education surveys. Analysis is also published in Education Matters (81-004-XIE, free, http://www.statcan.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=81-004-X), and in the Analytical Studies Branch research paper series (11F0019MIE, free, http://www.statcan.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=11F0019M).